Another Premier League weekend is in the books — and once again, there’s plenty of FPL talking points.
Injuries, form swings, fixture turns, and the looming AFCON exodus mean managers need to stay sharp. Here’s a full breakdown of what we learned from the weekend and how to use that information to prepare your squad for the next run of fixtures.
Arsenal defence? Not a long-term problem
Following defeat at Aston Villa, Arsenal have now kept one clean sheet in their last five. And with both Gabriel (6.2m) and William Saliba (£6.0m) sidelined, the dip in defensive solidity has an obvious explanation. Their replacements have done their best to plug gaps, but the absence of the first-choice centre-back pairing is being felt.
Still, this should not be a cause for panic: Arsenal remain the best defensive side in the league. Their numbers for goals conceded and xGC are still the best in the division, and their defensive control is still elite despite the poor run of clean sheets.
In FPL terms, though, the question is timing. With Gabriel still out and now Cristhian Mosquera (£5.4m) injured long term too, Piero Hincapie (£5.4m) suddenly becomes a standout value pick.
He should get a secure run of starts and the price might be too good to ignore. Arsenal have Wolves (H), Everton (A), Brighton & Hove Albion (H) and Aston Villa (H) in the next four, and with three of these at home, they should keep a few clean sheets at least.
Do not sell your Arsenal defenders, especially if you’ve held them through the tough run. Also monitor Saliba’s return — if he’s set for more time out, Hincapie becomes an even better long-term pick.
Why Brentford are better than recent scorelines suggest
Two losses and four goals conceded might look concerning at first glance, but Brentford’s last two fixtures came against Arsenal (A) and Tottenham Hotspur (A) — so not the easiest of encounters. Judging them on these results would be a mistake.
Their fixtures now swing as they come up against Leeds United (H), Wolves (A), Bournemouth (H), Tottenham (H), Sunderland (H) — five highly targetable matches in the next six. That makes Brentford one of the most important teams to invest in right now.
Don’t let Brentford’s recent results sway you against their FPL assets (Henry Nicholls/ AFP via Getty Images)
If you don’t own Igor Thiago (£6.9m), he should be at the very top of your transfer list this week. His underlying numbers remain excellent, he’s central to Brentford’s attack, and his ceiling is huge with this upcoming schedule.
He’s nailed to start, on penalties and will play 90 minutes in most games. The Brazilian has already proven himself with 11 goals in the first 15 games. That’s not all, though, as the Brentford defence also offers exceptional budget value.
Caoimhin Kelleher (£4.5m) is firmly first-choice goalkeeper and capable of big save points, Sepp van den Berg (£4.5m) is great value and a secure starter, and Michael Kayode (£4.5m) has attacking threat, is nailed to start and is the one with the most assist threat.
While Nathan Collins (£4.9m) is slightly more expensive, he is the best for Defensive Contributions scorer in the team, making him a strong differential. He has hit his defensive contribution threshold eight times this season.
Brentford could well keep a few clean sheets and are cheap enough to stick on your bench during the tough fixtures. They are also easily attainable due to their low prices.
Thiago is a priority buy — but for managers needing budget restructuring, Brentford defenders are ideal enablers.
Time to sell Mateta? Maybe
Jean-Philippe Mateta (£8.0m) has been decent this season, but with one goal in the last five and his minutes dwindling, it might be time to move him on. The fixtures coming up aren’t great as Crystal Palace face Manchester City (H) and Newcastle United (A) in their next five.
Mateta isn’t a bad option but the the real question is opportunity cost and if there is someone else representing better value. If you don’t own Thiago, the move is obvious: this is the transfer to make.
If you already own Thiago, though, selling Mateta becomes less essential. He remains involved and on penalties, Palace are capable enough to keep him relevant, and his price point means you’re unlikely to find a better immediate sideways option.
An outside punt who could deliver though, is Jarrod Bowen (£7.5m), who has a goal and assist in the last two. West Ham United have some winnable fixtures over the festive period, playing Aston Villa (H), Fulham (H), Brighton (H), Wolves (A) and Nottingham Forest (H) in the next six.
Bowen has played every minute of the league season so far, and even though West Ham have struggled, having a guaranteed 90-minute talisman through the festive period is hugely valuable.
West Ham — and FPL managers — can always count on Jarrod Bowen (Julian Finney/Getty Images)
Final thoughts
This weekend didn’t just give us results; it gave clarity.
Arsenal’s defence is temporarily weakened but still fundamentally elite. Brentford are about to enter a golden patch and need to be prioritised. Mateta remains viable but is no longer essential.
Get ahead of these shifts before the rest of the game catches up, and you’ll be well-positioned for the crucial winter period. Also, you will notice that you now have five free transfers to use due to AFCON.
I would advise not to make any needless short-term moves but use them to gradually reshape and strengthen your squad over the next few weeks, rather than using them all at once.
