Israel on Friday carried out a wave of deadly strikes across Lebanon in response to a Hezbollah attack that killed four soldiers in Lebanon – despite the US-Iran agreement declaring an end to the conflict on all fronts.
So where does this leave the Iran deal?
“The principal spoiler of any broader understanding with Iran remains Lebanon,” wrote Danny Citrinowitz, former head of the Iran branch of Israel’s military intelligence, adding that “the central question is how far the United States is prepared to go in enforcing a ceasefire that both sides interpret differently.”
The strikes came hours after the US and Iran postponed fresh talks in Switzerland, with US Vice-President JD Vance cancelling a trip.
On Friday, a diplomat with knowledge of the matter told CNN that Iran asked for guarantees that hostilities in Lebanon will end before it resumes talks with the US.
Trump also said on social media this week that as part of the deal, “we expect a complete Ceasefire on all fronts, including Lebanon, Hezbollah, and Israel.” But Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has previously made it clear he has no plans to withdraw from southern Lebanon.
On Friday, far-right members of Netanyahu’s cabinet doubled down on the war in Lebanon after the killing of the Israeli soldiers. National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir said “all of Lebanon should burn” while Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said “it is time to speak with fire.”
Meanwhile, Vance has grown increasingly impatient with Israel, saying: “If I was in the Cabinet of the Israeli government, I might not be attacking the only powerful ally that I have anywhere left in the entire world.”
For now, Lebanon remains “the most fragile component of any prospective agreement,” between the US and Israel, Citrinowitz said.
