Adelaide Crows list analysis, semi final preview vs Brisbane Lions, Zac Bailey turns down eight year offer to stay, star midfielders they could recruit in 2027, opinion, latest news

Three times in 12 months Adelaide has gone hunting for the exact midfielder everyone says they need, and three times they have come back empty-handed.

On Saturday night, they walk into the Gabba to face the club that just kept the latest of those targets.

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The three superstar midfielders in question are St Kilda’s Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera, Demon-turned-Sun Christian Petracca, and this year, Brisbane’s Zac Bailey.

Bailey’s epic eight-year contract, which was announced on Tuesday, will see him stay put at the Lions until the end of 2034 in the ultimate show of loyalty to the back-to-back reigning premiers.

After reportedly turning down $10 million, it now, means that barring an all-time Petracca backflip in next month’s trade period, none of them will wear the tri-colours in 2027.

Subsequently, it goes without saying that Adelaide’s interest in bringing Wanganeen-Milera to West Lakes is even greater than just over 12 months ago.

Last year, as the Saints superstar weighed up a return to South Australia, Crows legend Rory Sloane labelled the 23-year-old the “final piece to the puzzle for the club”.

Bluntly put, the Saints have one more year to convince the South Australian his long-term future is at Moorabbin, not in his home state.

That said, the Crows also can’t spend the next 12 months operating under the assumption he will eventually choose them. If the Saints finally return to September, it’s harder to see him leaving. But even if they don’t, Port Adelaide would again loom as a serious suitor should he decide to return home — just as they did last year.

The more interesting question though, is what happens if he again says no. Are there contingency plans in place?

The game’s best analysts have echoed variations of the same line throughout 2026: the Crows are close, but their on-ball brigade isn’t quite complete. The club has spent just over a year trying to close that gap with superstar talent, but a crack remains in the middle of an otherwise sturdy list.

In fact, a year ago to the day, foxfooty.com.au dissected Adelaide’s list build heading into their semi-final against Hawthorn. “Without that injection of (midfield) class, there’s a risk the Crows’ nucleus plateau,” it read.

Twelve months on, it’s safe to say that with Izak Rankine’s full-time addition to the on-ball brigade, they haven’t plateaued. But the need for another game-winning midfielder has crystallised.

Wanganeen-Milera is one of 10 high-end midfielders currently out of contract at the end of next season, and before even mentioning several of the names, some simply won’t be up for grabs for Adelaide.

Former Essendon skipper Zach Merrett is the most experienced of the group, and while he was loosely linked to the club last trade period, looks Hawthorn-bound this time around.

Of a similar calibre is Carlton captain Patrick Cripps, who is ingrained at Ikon Park despite no extension beyond 2027 just yet.

That narrows Adelaide’s field to seven other players they could, in theory, go all-in for should their plans for Wanganeen-Milera fall short…

SEVEN-STAR SHORTLIST… IF NAS STAYS PUT

Noah Anderson, Will Day, Matt Rowell, Jordan De Goey, Tom Green, Chad Warner and Beau McCreery.

Each of the seven stars has at least an element of uncertainty surrounding their future at their respective clubs, with Collingwood’s De Goey the only one who isn’t heading into his first year of free agency eligibility.

Two of those — Day and McCreery — have the most natural links back to South Australia after being raised there, though the former is expected to be particularly difficult to lure out of Hawthorn.

Day has endured an injury-interrupted past two seasons but, since signing a four-year deal in April 2023, has shown no signs of a desire to move back home.

Up north in Queensland, Gold Coast captain Anderson and reigning Brownlow medallist Rowell have long been linked with moves back home to Victoria, but there is currently little reason to suggest either should be considered a realistic Adelaide target at this stage.

Warner’s immediate footballing future remains uncertain after being stood down for the remainder of 2026, though, hailing from Western Australia, he looks likeliest to join West Coast in the event of a move.

Then, there’s Green, who shapes as one of Adelaide’s less speculative and more compelling options.

The GWS star is likely to become a restricted free agent and has reportedly attracted a monster long-term offer from his current club, who is understandably desperate to remove any uncertainty surrounding his future.

Tasmania has been working busily in the background as it awaits entry into the AFL and has identified Green as a player it could very well build its club around.

But, if Green remains unsigned deep into next season, Adelaide should be asking the question.

That leaves McCreery as the last remaining pre-agent, with Tasmania also said to have notable interest in luring him to the Apple Isle on a seven-figure salary. But, the speedy Magpie came out not long after on radio saying he was none the wiser about any rival offers coming his way.

De Goey is another intriguing name, but with five more years under his belt at the top level, he is a less obvious fit for a club trying to build a midfield capable of contending for several seasons.

SO… WHAT DO ADELAIDE DO THIS TRADE PERIOD?

Missing Bailey doesn’t mean the Crows need to find an alternative superstar this trade period. In fact, the worst response would be spending significant money simply because it’s available.

Even if there weren’t any headline recruits last off-season, protecting their draft hand and adding complementary pieces around the edges for a second straight year would be far from the worst thing they could do.

Dan Curtin’s injection into Matthew Nicks’ side at the back end of this season has shown plenty of promise for the future, while Sam Berry has proven himself a very handy lever to pull on-ball.

Sid Draper is also still developing and waiting in the wings after two years on the Crows’ list, with next season looming as a big one for him to take the next step.

The likes of Matt Roberts and Kane McAuliffe are other South Australians out of contract at the end of 2027 who the club could look to poach, but they’re unlikely to be the on-ball answer for Nicks’ side.

The Crows went into 2026 with 11 players who had 100-plus AFL games under their belts; a middling age profile that should hold them in good stead for the next few years, but also one that’s clearly entering its prime, if it’s not already there.

CLOSER TO HOME, WHY THEIR DEFENSIVE RICHES WILL COME AT A COST

Adelaide’s defence has, once again, been the quiet engine of its second-straight September campaign.

Josh Worrell’s intercept game and Mark Keane’s presence throughout the second half of this season have given Matthew Nicks one of the competition’s most trusted last lines — not to mention James Borlase’s surge into the club’s best 23.

That depth, however, is about to be tested.

After 94 games in the tri-colours, Jordon Butts has ultimately been the victim of Borlase’s superb form. As an unrestricted free agent, the 26-year-old looks increasingly likely to depart West Lakes, with the Western Bulldogs well and truly in the box seat for his services.

The Crows tabled a four-year deal back in May, but the Dogs have gone longer and higher as they desperately look to patch up their own defensive holes.

The Victorian has been overlooked at senior level since Round 13, squeezed out by the strong form of several teammates around him.

While in a similar boat and wanting a fresh start, the situation of defensive teammate Nick Murray is more complicated. Contracted until the end of 2028, the 25-year-old is expected to request a trade, with North Melbourne showing the most interest of any suitor so far.

The combination of limited senior opportunity and a rival club prepared to pay a premium looks likely to force the issue — though it remains to be seen how willing Adelaide will be to facilitate a move, given it has no reason to let him walk without notable trade capital coming back in return.

But, when all is said and done, Saturday night’s do-or-die clash at the Gabba is still about whether this group can go further than last year.

The winter that follows will be about whether Adelaide can keep the list moving forward; almost certainly without the midfielder it has chased for 12 months, and two defenders who helped get it this far.