There appears to have been a seasonal bump behind the rise in food inflation, given it was concentrated in Easter-related items such as confectionary and meat.
Despite that, you shouldn’t get too relaxed as other price pressures will emerge, just much more gradually.
In the case of food, producers tend to buy the items most affected by this war such as energy and fertiliser months in advance, so it can be up to a year or more until we notice changes in prices in the supermarket aisles.
The food industry and supermarkets are energy-intensive industries, which means they face risks from higher energy costs.
While the Food and Drink Federation is warning that their members could be increasing prices by 9 or 10% by the end of the year, that might not come to pass.
Customers are more stretched than they were in 2022, more cautious after years of climbing prices. They are also wary of spending as the jobs markets remains challenging.
Many have already traded down to more affordable options as far as they can in spending habits, so retailers may find it harder to pass on higher costs on as price rises, without damaging custom.
And the prices of foodstuffs such as wheat have not rocketed as they did in 2022 as there isn’t the risk to supplies. Ukraine is a key source of stables including wheat and sunflower seeds.
