Manchester United vs Arsenal: The mood, transfer window, hopes for the season and predictions

Manchester United vs Arsenal: The mood, transfer window, hopes for the season and predictions

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Manchester United host Arsenal on Sunday in the pick of the games from the opening weekend of the 2025-26 Premier League season.

Ruben Amorim’s home side will be desperate to prove they have been transformed over the summer following a truly abysmal domestic campaign and Mikel Arteta’s team are looking to go one better after three consecutive second-placed finishes in the top flight.

To get you in the mood, The Athletic asked one of our United writers, Mark Critchley, and Arsenal counterpart James McNicholas for their insights before the game at Old Trafford.


What has changed at your club since last season?

Mark Critchley: The impact of Sir Jim Ratcliffe’s cost-cutting measures was still being felt over the summer, with more football-focused staff let go at the end of the season. Others departed voluntarily, and some are only staying around until replacements are found.

The hope at United is that the club are now past the worst of all the upheaval of the past year, and that those who remain can truly call the renovated men’s training building at Carrington their place of work. Ratcliffe cut the ribbon on the £50million ($67.8m) facility last week. It is certainly an upgrade on the Carrington of old and a symbol of what United believe will be a fresh start.

James McNicholas: Perhaps the most significant change is that Arsenal now have most of their key players fit again. In the second half of last season, they were without Bukayo Saka, Kai Havertz, Gabriel and others for significant periods.

There has also been significant incoming transfer business, including the addition of centre-forward Viktor Gyokeres. It’s fascinating that this game could see him line up against fellow striker Benjamin Sesko — at the start of the summer, many believed the latter would sign for Arsenal, and that Gyokeres would end up reuniting with Amorim after working together at previous club Sporting CP in Lisbon.


Gyokeres in pre-season for Arsenal (Alex Pantling/Getty Images)

How has the transfer window gone at your club?

Critchley: It has been quietly impressive. Matheus Cunha’s £62.5million signing from Wolves was a relatively straightforward deal and was finalised early. The same could not be said for the pursuit of Bryan Mbeumo, which lasted 44 days and ended with Brentford earning a guaranteed £65m, but in the end, United secured their two priority targets.

Sales were said to be needed before they could make further additions, but there was always the possibility that Ratcliffe borrowed to spend and drew down on the club’s revolving credit facilities.

Sesko has filled the priority position at centre-forward for an initial €76.5million (£66.1m; $89.5m), despite no permanent exits and formidable competition for the RB Leipzig striker from Newcastle United. But outgoings are still necessary, especially after Amorim ostracised five players — Marcus Rashford, Alejandro Garnacho, Antony, Jadon Sancho and Tyrell Malacia — to form a so-called ‘bomb squad‘. So far, only Rashford has departed, to Barcelona, and even that is only a loan.

McNicholas: Arsenal’s incoming business has been good.

A deal for midfielder Martin Zubimendi was formally completed in July, but had effectively been agreed months before. The long hunt for a new striker ended when Gyokeres joined for a €63.5million upfront fee, plus €10m in potential add-ons. Arsenal have also added depth by signing Kepa Arrizabalaga, Christian Norgaard and Cristhian Mosquera.

The wildcard signing is arguably Noni Madueke. Bought from Chelsea for an initial £48.5million, the England international provides Arteta with another option on either flank.

As with United, Arsenal are prioritising sales in the final part of the window. Reiss Nelson, Fabio Vieira, Albert Sambi Lokonga and Karl Hein are all available.

What is the mood at the club as the season starts?

Critchley: More positive than you might think. Amorim and his players have regularly spoken of a bond developing in the camp this summer. Yes, you would expect them to say that on the eve of a new season, but talk to those around the club and it largely checks out.

Having exiled the out-of-favour five, Amorim is now working with a group of players who are fully aligned with his vision. United’s results and performances in pre-season have been broadly positive.


Manchester United celebrate their penalty shootout win against Fiorentina during pre-season (Matt McNulty/Getty Images)

Can such optimism survive a tricky set of opening fixtures? United’s worst finish of the Premier League era last season leaves little margin for error. And though their summer spending is proof that Amorim has the hierarchy’s support, it also shows how critical it is that he avoids a repeat of his first campaign in charge.

McNicholas: The mood is good, especially after the comprehensive 3-0 win over Athletic Club in their final friendly of pre-season.

Expectations are high, however. The Emirates Cup that the club won after beating the Bilbao side last Saturday is not going to satisfy supporters. After falling short of major silverware in each of the past five seasons, there is definite pressure on manager Arteta.

Arsenal have a very challenging start to their Premier League campaign — including this trip to Old Trafford — and they need to come through it without sustaining too much damage. A few bad early results, and all that hope and anticipation could easily bubble over into something more negative.

How big is the gap between these teams?

Critchley: It was 32 points last season. The only time it has been bigger in the Premier League era was 1994-95, when United finished 37 clear of Arsenal (though that was in a 42-game campaign). United were runners-up that year. Arsenal finished in the bottom half for the first time in a long time, and also lost a European final.

The parallels are there if you want to go looking for them. Arsenal were still three years away from winning their next title — the timeframe United have set for ‘Project 150’, their target to be crowned champions again by 2028, in line with the club’s 150th anniversary.

It is a very different league three decades on, but United could catch up quickly. We are still talking about the second- and third-placed clubs from just three seasons ago.

McNicholas: The gap is a gulf. For someone raised on the title races between these clubs in the 1990s and early 2000s, it was surreal to see United so close to the foot of the Premier League last season.

Amorim has been granted more time after his mid-season arrival. One wonders if Arteta’s journey at Arsenal strengthened United’s conviction to stick with their new manager.

The Spaniard had a dismal period in the winter of 2020 when he got the job, but the board kept faith. Ultimately, that loyalty has been rewarded by Arsenal’s return to the Champions League and their improved capacity to challenge for silverware. United will hope Amorim can follow a similar trajectory.

Which opposition player should your club be most nervous about?

Critchley: The obvious answer is Bukayo Saka, who could have a lot of joy down United’s left if Patrick Dorgu plays as high up the pitch today as he has during pre-season, which could potentially leave Luke Shaw to deal with Arsenal’s most potent open-play threat.


Shaw, left, and Saka in a game in 2023 (James Williamson – AMA/Getty Images)

Set pieces have to be considered too, though, especially as United conceded the joint-fourth-most in the league from dead balls last season, including two in the Premier League fixture at the Emirates. Jurrien Timber and William Saliba were the scorers that December night, but Gabriel is typically more dangerous, and scored after the breakdown of a corner in January’s FA Cup meeting.

McNicholas: Even when United have been at their lowest, the quality of Bruno Fernandes has shone through. His decision to stay this summer after interest from Saudi Arabia provided them with a considerable boost.

If Sesko starts, there will naturally be a huge media focus on his performance. Arsenal tracked his progress for years and deliberated over signing him this summer, before ultimately plumping for Gyokeres.

United’s great threat may come on their right-hand side. Myles Lewis-Skelly and Riccardo Calafiori occasionally leave space in behind on Arsenal’s left, and Mbeumo and Amad have the speed and quality to exploit that.

Where will the other club finish this season?

Critchley: I’ve gone back and forth between Liverpool, Arsenal and Manchester City all summer, but I’m leaning towards Arteta’s side to be champions.

As much as everyone banged on about not having a recognised striker, and though a signing like Gyokeres was obviously needed, injuries, sendings-off and a creative over-reliance on Saka were as much a part of their downfall last season. Maybe they run into some of those issues again, but you could chalk most of them down to bad luck. And if they avoid those pitfalls, there is a stable, familiar foundation for Arteta to work with at a time when Liverpool and City are having to rebuild.

McNicholas: Full disclosure: I have no idea. So much depends on what kind of progress the squad have made in understanding and implementing Amorim’s system.

My gut tells me United will be a top-half team again, though I’d be surprised if they finished in the Champions League qualification places. Somewhere between sixth and 10th feels most plausible to me.

How do you expect your team’s coach to set them up?

Critchley: We all know by now that Amorim is not going to budge from his 3-4-2-1, and all of United’s summer business has been geared towards filling its roles and responsibilities.

Cunha and Mbeumo have been signed to play as the left and right attacking midfielders respectively, which is likely to see Fernandes drop back into midfield. All three started up top together in the pre-season meeting with Everton, though, and could do so again if Sesko is not deemed ready for his debut.

Amad is also likely to be repositioned this season as a result of Mbeumo’s arrival and could see more minutes at right wing-back than he did last term, although this could be the type of contest where Diogo Dalot’s defensive solidity is preferred.

McNicholas: It’ll be Arsenal’s standard variation on a 4-3-3. The improved depth at Arteta’s disposal means he will have options in a variety of positions. He can choose between Lewis-Skelly and Calafiori at left-back, and Ben White and Timber on the opposite side of his back four. A midfield of Zubimendi, Declan Rice and Martin Odegaard picks itself.


Martin Odegaard, one of the many midfield options at Mikel Arteta’s disposal (Alex Burstow/Arsenal FC via Getty Images)

The most intriguing decision is whether Arteta deems Gyokeres ready to play from the start. He scored in that final friendly against Athletic Club, and the manager may be tempted to go with the Swede — especially after Havertz suffered a minor injury last week, which disrupted his pre-season preparation.

Score predictions?

Critchley: A repeat of the 1-1 draw in the corresponding fixture in March. Amorim’s setup has frustrated ‘Big Six’ opponents in the past, even if his 10 matches against those clubs across all competitions last season only resulted in one United win (two if you include beating Arsenal on penalties in the FA Cup).

McNicholas: Arsenal are the better side but history shows that doesn’t always translate into results. A draw is a good bet, a result could suit both clubs. I’ll go for a 2-2.

(Top photo: Ash Donelon/Manchester United via Getty Images)

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