One Nation Soars as Labor, Coalition Stumble in Aftermath of Bondi Tragedy
- DemosAU poll shows One Nation and Coalition tied on primary vote
- Labor’s primary vote falls to 29 per cent
- One Nation records swing of almost +17 per cent since 2025 election
New federal polling shows the Coalition and One Nation are tied on a 23 per cent primary vote while Labor’s vote has fallen to 29 per cent.
The DemosAU Poll, first published in Capital Brief, -5.6 per cent swing against Labor since the May 2025 election and the -8.8 per cent swing against the Coalition has led to a swing of +16.6 per cent to One Nation.
In the first published federal voting intention poll of the year, the Greens and Others recorded primary votes of 12% and 13% respectively.
Two-Party Preferred Contest Narrows
On a two-party preferred basis between Labor and the Coalition, Labor led 52-48 per cent.
But using an ALP-One Nation TPP measure, these two parties are tied 50-50 per cent.*
This is because Coalition preference flows to One Nation are stronger than One Nation preference flows to the Coalition, based on the available data, leading to One Nation performing better on TPP, according to DemosAU’s Head of Research George Hasanakos.
The poll shows Anthony Albanese led the Coalition’s Sussan Ley 42-29 per cent as preferred prime minister based on a head-to-head question between the Prime Minister and the Leader of the Opposition.
In terms of personal ratings, both Albanese and Ley had a net score of -12 per cent and -11 per cent respectively.
One Nation/Coalition Tie a Polling First
Mr Hasanakos said it was the first time a nationwide Australian poll had shown a minor party on equal footing with a major party.
While it was an astonishing result for One Nation, Mr Hasanakos said it made sense given international trends, recent events and the party’s rising support in recent months.
“One Nation climbed around 11 points between the election and November according to our recent MRP and has now jumped another six percentage points after a seismic event.
“Australia is now on the cusp of following several European countries where a far-right populist party is now challenging for government in the polls,’’ he said.
“It’s not that shocking when you see other polls, for example, in the United Kingdom, showing a Reform Party lead over a first term UK Labour government.”
Mr Hasanakos said the Bondi attacks had put the leadership qualities of both the Prime Minister and Opposition Leader to the test.
“The recent terrorist attack in Bondi has shocked the nation and put issues such as national security, anti-semitism, immigration and community cohesion firmly in the spotlight,” he said.
“With the rising support of One Nation before this event, it makes this fertile ground for a long-standing anti-immigration voice in Ms Hanson to gain further support.
“Combine this with the electorate’s increasing frustration over the rising cost of living, it’s no surprise that many Australians are looking for alternatives.
“But a federal election is still 2 years away so the big test for the government will be how things shape up when the political debate moves on to other issues.”
One in Three Past Coalition Voters switch to One Nation
A recent DemosAU MRP poll showed one in five 2025 Coalition voters had switched to One Nation. In today’s new poll, albeit with a smaller sample, nearly one in three (31%) now indicate support for One Nation.
Among 2025 Labor voters, just over one in ten (11%) are now indicating support for One Nation.
About this research
*The ALP-One Nation TPP measure is based on the limited preference data available and should be treated with caution.
The poll of 1,027 Australians was conducted via internet panels from 5 to 6 January 2026 with an effective margin of error of +/- 4.0%.
Please see our Report for more information.
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