As Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy (NASDAQ: MSTR) gears up to report earnings on Oct. 30, sentiment among traders has turned sharply bearish, both on Wall Street and in the crypto derivatives space.
On prediction market Polymarket, bettors are assigning only an 18% chance that the company will beat its quarterly expectations. The skepticism mirrors growing unease about the company’s exposure to Bitcoin (BTC) as volatility in the crypto market fades.
“I finally figured out what $MSTR means – ‘BTC Yield’,” wrote self-proclaimed investor @beaniemaxi, known for spotting early-stage tech and crypto plays.
“The 26% YTD headline number is equal to the difference between Bitcoin price YTD (+18%) and its stock price (-8%). It finally makes sense!”
In other words, he’s pointing out that MicroStrategy’s so-called ‘BTC Yield’ isn’t a gain at all, but a clever way of framing its underperformance against Bitcoin as a positive figure.
MicroStrategy’s stock has plunged roughly 30% over the past six months, per Yahoo Finance. MSTR stock is trading around $265 at press time, far from its July high of nearly $400.
Analysts at 10x Research argue the weakness stems from waning volatility in Bitcoin and a “normalization” of the firm’s net asset value premium.
“For months, the market decided MicroStrategy was finished – a broken Bitcoin proxy with no catalysts and an exhausted playbook,” 10x Research wrote on X. “We turned bearish in May 2025, expecting shares to fall from ~$400 to $330 and potentially $300.”
Despite this pessimism, sell-side consensus remains surprisingly upbeat, with 9 of 14 analysts still forecasting nearly 100% upside, averaging price targets near $552, according to 10x Research.
MicroStrategy (NASDAQ: MSTR) posted remarkable quarterly earnings of $32.52 per share, dramatically beating the expected loss of $0.09 by 35,447.83%. This represents a 4,378.95% improvement over the $0.76 per-share loss in the same period a year ago.
The company also reported sales of $114.49 million, slightly ahead of the projected $112.96 million, marking a 1.35% beat. Revenue increased by 2.73% from $111.44 million in the same quarter last year.
Analysts warn that predicting MSTR’s results remains a “coin toss” tied to Bitcoin’s price swings rather than its software business.
Meanwhile, CEO Michael Saylor isn’t backing down. Saylor continues to double down on Bitcoin, recently reaffirming a $150,000 price target for the asset by year-end.
This story was originally reported by TheStreet on Oct 30, 2025, where it first appeared in the Business News section. Add TheStreet as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
