Why Nuggets will — and won’t — make the 2027 NBA Finals

Not only have eight different teams won the last eight NBA championships, but simply making it to the NBA Finals twice has become an unprecedented challenge in the league’s era of parity. Seven different teams have won the Western Conference in the last seven years. One of them is the Nuggets.

When they hoisted the Larry O’Brien Trophy in 2023, they had dreams of sustained dominance. Maybe even a dynasty. That has proven difficult for them, and for everyone else, in the three years since.

Can Denver buck the trend and return to the Finals in 2027? Ahead of opening night in Oklahoma City on Thursday, here are five reasons it will happen — and five reasons it won’t.

Why the Nuggets will make the 2027 NBA Finals

1. The three-time MVP: Nikola Jokic is 12 triple-doubles away from passing his former teammate, Russell Westbrook, for one of the NBA’s most hallowed records. He led the league in rebounds and assists per game last year. He might’ve won a fourth MVP trophy if not for a hyperextended knee in late December, which rudely interrupted the hottest start of his career. After going on the record with an adamant verbal commitment to sign a new contract with Denver next offseason, Jokic can turn his focus to the court. He’ll turn 32 during the All-Star break, but there’s been no indication of a decline yet, almost every counting stat and advanced metric suggests Denver’s point center is still the sport’s most impactful offensive player.

2. The starters’ chemistry: The Nuggets are the only team in the Western Conference rolling out the same starting lineup as last season, a bet on continuity against the ever-changing roster churn of the modern NBA. Jamal Murray is one of the league’s best second options and one of the most willing stars to accept that role, fresh off an All-NBA campaign that revealed his adaptability (an uptick in 3-point attempts was vital). But despite ranking seventh in minutes played (360) among all five-man lineups, Denver’s starters left the 2025-26 season feeling like they barely played together at all. At least one of them was absent from 59 games, including a month without Jokic. David Adelman clearly wants to keep them together as much as possible this year, judging by the coach’s recent claim that he plans to try an all-bench second unit. With better injury luck, the starters could play twice as many minutes as a unit this season.

3. The bounce-back candidates: There’s a lot of room for individual improvement in that lineup despite its collective success. Christian Braun spent half of last season nursing a swollen ankle and the other half trying to play on it. The result was the worst year of his career, characterized by inconsistent perimeter defense and a 9.6% drop in 3-point shooting. A return to form would help Denver improve at both ends of the floor. Cam Johnson has also voiced his regrets about last season, particularly how long it took for him to adjust to the Jokic offense as a newcomer. With a year of experience, his decisiveness with the ball was a key theme for the Nuggets this preseason.

4. The sixth man: The Nuggets had a Sixth Man of the Year candidate last season, but Tim Hardaway Jr. was primarily a catch-and-shoot specialist who got his shots by playing off of various actions. DeMar DeRozan won’t shoot half as many 3s, but he’ll be able to create his own shot off the dribble far more often, providing a reliable stylistic changeup when Jokic is on the bench. Denver’s hope is that even when DeRozan’s shot isn’t falling, the low-mistake nature of his game (not to mention Tyus Jones) will allow the bench to play controlled basketball on offense, get back on defense and eat innings.

5. The player development trend: Denver has a knack for turning unheralded prospects into playable rotation contributors. Peyton Watson was a No. 30 overall pick who broke out last year under Adelman, after he was buried in the rotation for three seasons. Spencer Jones transformed from an undrafted two-way signee into one of the Nuggets’ best defenders. Years ago in a different regime, Jokic, well, you know. The Nuggets need to find more diamonds in the rough this season, but they have a track record for doing a lot with a little.

Why the Nuggets won’t make the 2027 NBA Finals

1. The defense: The Nuggets have ranked 21st in defensive rating two consecutive years — well below the standard for championship-caliber teams — and they lost one of their most versatile young defenders this offseason in Watson, an athletic wing who could disrupt the ball and block shots from the weak side. Denver is left with an ongoing deficit in screen navigation talent, a pair of offense-first stars who are regularly targeted at the other end, an injury-prone defensive leader (more on that soon) and a transition defense that Adelman described as “embarrassing” after a preseason exhibition this month.

2. The depth: Adelman might have to throw (bleep) at the wall this season and live with some dismal non-Jokic stints to avoid overworking his starters. DeRozan and Spencer Jones are the only reserves entering the season with full trust. The Nuggets’ new backup center (Marvin Bagley III) has changed teams before the trade deadline in three consecutive seasons and has never stuck in a rotation. Their backup point guard (Tyus Jones) was one of the best in the league three years ago, but his shooting efficiency plummeted last season when he landed in Denver after getting bought out of his previous contract. Their best defensive guard off the bench (Alpha Diallo) is a 29-year-old NBA rookie plucked from the EuroLeague. And their best rim protector off the bench (Trevon Brazile) is a rookie who was drafted in the second round this year. That’s a lot of wild cards, even after an encouraging preseason.

3. The health of Aaron Gordon: Denver’s do-it-all power forward has missed 77 regular-season games over the last two years, and he’s been medically compromised by the end of both playoff runs in that span. On-off net rating differential is a popular stat among Jokic’s staunchest MVP advocates. But it also makes a compelling case for Gordon as Denver’s next-most important player. His presence had the second-largest impact on the team last season, a 9.9-point differential per 100 possessions. Crucially, that number included a healthy mix of offense (5.4) and defense (4.5). The Nuggets, Gordon claimed this month, are as good as anyone in the league when they’re healthy. But trusting the 31-year-old to stay healthy for eight straight weeks of playoff basketball gets harder every season.

4. The fickle Jokic 3-ball: For all the talk this offseason about how the Nuggets are failing Jokic, it seems to have been forgotten that Jokic failed them in the first round of the 2026 playoffs. His struggle to produce against Rudy Gobert was arguably the No. 1 reason Denver lost in six games to Minnesota. As he seeks redemption, the major variable to watch will be the 3-point shot, which comes and goes at random. The Nuggets have lost three of their last four playoff series. Jokic has shot 28-for-111 (25.2%) from deep across those three series losses. In the one series they won? He went 14-for-31 (45.2%) against the Clippers in 2025. At the risk of over-simplification, if Jokic isn’t making his 3s at the right time, then Denver will have two starters on the floor (Braun) left open by defenses determined to protect the paint. In the playoffs, that can be a death sentence.

5. The Spurs and Thunder: The Nuggets might be really good this season, and yet that still probably won’t be enough in a Western Conference that’s been commandeered by two juggernauts. San Antonio and Oklahoma City have it all — MVP-caliber superstars, All-Star secondary and tertiary offensive engines, suffocating defenses, deep benches. And cheap contracts. Both teams were able to watch and learn from mistakes that other title contenders made in the early days of the Apron Era. They stockpiled draft picks, cashed in on lottery luck and waited for the right moment to make aggressive trades. It would be an accomplishment for the Nuggets to beat one of them in a playoff series. To reach the NBA Finals, they’ll likely have to go through both.

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