NHL contract efficiency rankings 2026: Which teams spend their money most wisely?

Every summer I take some time to dig into the NHL’s contract landscape. The best of the best, the worst of the worst and then the rest: A deep dive that ranks each team’s cap sheet.

That’s today’s goal: Assessing every player’s market value over the remainder of his contract, comparing it to his actual cap hit and then measuring the probability of the deal providing positive value. From that, I put all the pieces together to see which teams are spending their money best.

Over the last two years, the cap landscape has obviously shifted dramatically, leaving a lot of older contracts looking great and a lot of newer contracts looking less so. What that means is that a large majority of the league have more positive value than not on their books, but also that the teams with the most term left on legacy deals hold the most power. It’s not enough to get a “fair” deal, and having negative value on the books can put a team way behind.

All of this is ever-changing, of course — that’s why it’s an annual exercise to see how things shift around the league as players develop and decline. Using the same criteria as the best and worst contracts list, each player is judged based on total surplus value (more term means more time for value to compound, for better or worse) and the likelihood of the deal being good. Both are based on every player’s future trajectory over the life of his contract, which uses player comps to determine his likeliest path(s) forward.

How a player ages and how the cap increases are two of the biggest factors for this exercise. The current cap environment is an especially big factor when a 10 percent deal is worth $10.4 million next year, but could be worth as much as $15 million in seven or eight years. That means that valuations for younger players will look a lot better than some might expect if it’s over a lengthy term. Keep in mind that all the model estimates listed below — whether you agree or not — are based on an estimation of the future, not the past.

With all that being said, here’s how every team measures up.

The goal here is to grade contracts empirically, with the same context being applied to each player across the league: how much value does each player bring to the table per year and over the life of the contract. The way that’s measured comes from comparing a player’s Net Rating and the expected salary that comes with it to a player’s current contract.

What players have already done holds no merit; this is about the future value of the deal, with age effects based on player comps taken into account while accounting for expected salary growth. Contract clauses and bonus structure are important, but not considered with this assessment. Players on LTIR were not considered.

1. Carolina Hurricanes

Last season: 2nd

With seven A-level deals, no team has it better than the Stanley Cup champions. Last year’s big bets on young talent look like absolute larceny in a rising cap world with the big term allowing plenty of surplus value to compound. Over one year, the value on Jackson Blake and Logan Stankoven’s deals has already appreciated 24 percent.

Seth Jarvis, Sebastian Aho and Jaccob Slavin are the other core pieces on terrific lengthy deals while last year’s addition of K’Andre Miller has already aged wonderfully.

Across the board, nearly every bet the Hurricanes have made has panned out well, from UFAs (Nikolaj Ehlers, Sean Walker, Shayne Gostisbehere) to trades (Taylor Hall, Mark Jankowski). 

The lone blemish is the Jesperi Kotkaniemi deal, but that feels fairly movable these days given the center market. And even with that, the team still has $10 million in cap space. That’s solid business and it’s why the Hurricanes likely aren’t done after winning the Cup this summer. They’re designed to keep winning for years to come.

2. Montreal Canadiens

Last season: 14th

After a season in which the Canadiens ascended into the league’s final four, it should come as no surprise as to where they land given their relative age and long-term deals in place. No team jumped higher than Montreal, up 12 spots. Kent Hughes is building a monster off the back of some incredible cap efficiency for Montreal’s core group.

Montreal has four A-plus grades on the books, two more than any other team in the league. Having forwards such as Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield and Juraj Slafkovský at their current levels making less than Jacob Trouba will have that effect. Given their relatively young ages, there isn’t much decline expected; with the term on each deal and the cap rising, that leads to some gaudy market value. It wouldn’t be a shock to see Ivan Demidov get to that level this time next year either, and the model is a big fan of Jakub Dobes’ immediate future, too.

Those contracts, though, don’t hold a candle to Lane Hutson’s deal, which is without question the best one in hockey. There’s a very strong chance Hutson is a top-10 defenseman for the entirety of his contract, and the model expects he won’t be close to 10th. He’s already that good and will only get better, which leads to a modeled value higher than the league max. That he makes less than $9 million for eight more years is pure robbery, leaving over $100 million on the table. That shouldn’t be that difficult to see after Bowen Byram’s eye-popping extension this summer.

Those five deals do a lot of the heavy lifting here. The rest ranges from fine (Noah Dobson, Kaiden Guhle) to outright bad (Phillip Danault, Josh Anderson). The good news is the great deals will be cooking for a while and should allow Montreal to build something truly special. The bad deals? They’ll be off the books by next summer, where it wouldn’t be a shock to see the Canadiens sitting at the top of this list with plenty of room to add to one of the game’s best young cores.

3. Ottawa Senators

Last season: 5th

Even without Brady Tkachuk in the fold, the Senators still land in the top five again this year. It’s a shame he didn’t stick around for what the Senators were building; they looked to be on the cusp and strong cap efficiency plays a central role in that.

The biggest draw is the bets Ottawa made on its twin budding stars, Tim Stützle and Jake Sanderson. Deals just over $8 million for each look like nothing now, especially for Sanderson, who emerged as one of the game’s best defensemen last season. Add new deals signed for Shane Pinto and analytics darling Jordan Spence and the Senators look great. 

On the skater front, there is zero bad money on the books, which leads to an average positive value rate of 75 percent; only the Hurricanes are higher. If the Senators’ goaltending ever figures itself out, they’ll be cooking.

4. Dallas Stars

Last season: 6th

With Jason Robertson signed, the Stars are set and they’re looking excellent across the board. When the two worst deals on the books are a soon-to-be expiring deal for Tyler Seguin (who is still very good!) and an essentially fair deal for Mikko Rantanen, the franchise is living good. Almost everyone is underpaid.

The difference between the Stars and the three teams above them is the lack of big wins. Wyatt Johnston, Roope Hintz, Esa Lindell, Miro Heiskanen and Jake Oettinger are all on fantastic deals — they just don’t quite land as hard as the teams above. A long-term extension for Robertson after Jan. 1 could change that, though even that doesn’t feel likely to be a big win given his reported asks; his new deal would likely be closer to fair money.

And that’s if he stays. If he doesn’t, that’ll be a tough loss that would be hard to come back from — even with all the other efficient deals on the books.

5. Tampa Bay Lightning

Last season: 1st

Last year’s top dog has dropped to fifth, mostly because deals on other teams’ books have aged more strongly than Tampa Bay’s own.

The one truly bad deal for Tampa Bay is the one that was weirdly signed this summer for Jeffrey Viel. Aside from that, everything looks rosy, led by Brandon Hagel having one of the best deals in hockey. 

The big question will be how much surplus value the Lightning can extract from Nikita Kucherov’s next contract. He’s worth nearly double his current salary at the moment, but age may make things tricky if he’s looking to command Kirill Kaprizov money.

6. Colorado Avalanche

Last season: 3rd

Having one of the best players in the world signed for the next five years at Bowen Byram money is a cheat code. That’s the main deal that powers Colorado’s standing, but it helps to have two recent extensions given out to Martin Necas and Sam Malinski already looking great, too. There’s a good chance Cale Makar’s deal adds to those wins.

The Avalanche have a lot of great deals spread out, but the Brett Kulak one signed this summer already feels like a miss. He needs a big bounce-back from last season.

7. Buffalo Sabres

Last season: 16th

The Sabres finally made the playoffs and that partly led to a healthy jump into the top 10 in cap efficiency. A breakthrough season from Mattias Samuelsson and continued excellence from Tage Thompson and Rasmus Dahlin helped on that front.

Also helping are a pair of new deals for two emerging core pieces: Zach Benson and Josh Doan. The two spark-plug wingers are going to be a bargain for the next seven years, adding to the team’s foundation. If Owen Power can take a real step next season, the Sabres should be rolling.

If there’s one nitpick, it’s Beck Malenstyn’s new contract. Giving term to a fourth liner is rarely ideal. That and a bunch of dead money is what keeps the Sabres out of the top five.

8. Florida Panthers

Last season: 4th

The Panthers are still in the top 10 after a rough year, but don’t rank as highly as they once did. Age, injuries and some recent extensions signed that were just fair (Eetu Luostarinen, Niko Mikkola) play a role, but it has more to do with the rest of the league catching up than anything. Florida’s average positive value and total surplus are both nearly identical to last season; other teams have just begun to score higher.

A return to form for the team as a whole should help Florida’s standing going into next season, but the relative age of everyone means it’s not exactly a given. With the rest of the East on the rise, even the two-time champs have something to prove next season.

9. Washington Capitals

Last season: 20th

One of the year’s biggest contract glow-ups belongs to Jakob Chychrun. I was a vocal proponent of the extension, but the combination of his breakthrough last season and the cap likely going up even further than expected has his deal ageing beautifully. Between him and Logan Thompson, the Capitals have two of the league’s best contracts.

After all the moves the Capitals have pulled off over the last few years, they deserve a lot of trust in their process. Almost every deal on the books looks reasonable and that allowed the team to splurge on a luxury deal in Alex Tuch. There was some consternation when he landed on this year’s worst contracts list, but that’s far from a problem with the Capitals given all the value the team has elsewhere — not to mention three potentially strong ELCs to add further surplus to the books. And given the way things have trended in Washington, it wouldn’t be a shock to see Tuch’s deal age better than forecasted.

10. Utah Mammoth

Last season: 12th

While I’m really down on MacKenzie Weegar’s trajectory at the moment, it’s a risk Utah could afford to take — the rest of its books are that clean. That’s obviously led by Dylan Guenther’s extension, which is one of the league’s best, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if Logan Cooley’s gets to that level next season either. 

The Mammoth spent fair money in free agency (Anders Lee) and added a good value deal as well this summer (Vincent Trocheck). They’re a team on the rise and their cap structure will be a major part of that. John Marino’s recent extension adds to that.

11. New Jersey Devils

Last season: 9th

New GM Sunny Mehta is the exact reason the Devils managed to stay around the top 10 after a disappointing season. He added Anthony Mantha and Evan Rodrigues, he extended Arseny Gritsyuk and Nico Hischier, and he shipped away Šimon Nemec and Jacob Markstrom. All of those moves improved New Jersey’s overall pricing and have the Devils well-situated not only to compete this year but also to continue building a potential contender.

12. Edmonton Oilers

Last season: 8th

As usual with the Oilers, the best parts are exactly who you’d expect. Leon Draisaitl is obviously a bargain now at $14 million for the next seven years and even if Connor McDavid only has two years of term, the Oilers are saving big at the price. Add Evan Bouchard and Zach Hyman to that mix and it’s the usual suspects for Edmonton.

There are some other good deals around the edges, but also a plethora of bad decisions that keep the Oilers outside the top 10. Edmonton got rid of Darnell Nurse’s deal, which helps, but spending $20 million on Jason Dickinson, Trent Frederic, Jake Walman and Tristan Jarry is far from savvy. Ryan Shea, at least, was a great bet this summer; he’s not far from Nurse’s on-ice value at less than half the cost.

(And for those wondering why McDavid’s model value is $200,000 lower than Hutson’s, it’s entirely due to age and term. McDavid’s value on an eight-year deal, even in his 30s, is $25 million).

13. Vegas Golden Knights

Last season: 7th

Remember when Jack Eichel signed for $13.5 million for the next eight years less than a year ago? The context around that deal sure has changed and it’s now Vegas’ best deal up front. 

The Golden Knights have a strong history of pricing and that’s apparent with a majority of their deals. It’s what made it so surprising when they still gave Rasmus Andersson the deal they did this summer, even after a weak showing post-deadline and a particularly rough playoffs. That nullifies a lot of the wins they got with Eichel.

The biggest reason Vegas fell out of the top 10, though, was the fall-off of Adin Hill. He has the worst goalie contract in the league and was a hindrance on Vegas’ offseason. The cap is exploding, but bad money can still lead to losing good players.

14. Pittsburgh Penguins

Last season: 21st

The Penguins had a remarkable turnaround last season thanks to some great bets from Kyle Dubas. That continued this summer with the Kaedan Korczak trade and it’s likely the Egor Chinakhov extension lands better than I expect given his performance once he got to Pittsburgh. Now they enter this season with a great cap sheet and a ton of cap space.

The only problem, aside from Ryan Graves continuing to be here, is term. The Penguins are seventh in positive value probability, but are only average in surplus value due to the lack of length on the great deals they do have. The Penguins aren’t exactly in a position to be giving out term to anyone anyway, but that detail is what keeps them out of the top 10.

15. Columbus Blue Jackets

Last season: 17th

Before Jet Greaves signed a deal that the model absolutely loves (he’s been one of the league’s most efficient goalies over the last few seasons), the two best deals on the books belonged to the two players who wanted out this summer. That’s not ideal for Columbus. Zach Werenski has since walked back that idea, but Kirill Marchenko’s name is still out there in trade rumors. This franchise needs some stability and that may come with a long-term extension from Adam Fantilli even if it’s not immediately efficient. His modeled value on a five-year deal is $10.6 million and it wouldn’t be a shock to see him come in above that.

The rest is mostly meh, though it is great to see Ivan Provorov prove the haters (me) wrong with a terrific season in the first year of his deal. He’s not all the way up to $8.5 million of projected value yet, but it was an incredibly encouraging sight to see him actually play at a top-pair level last season. Ditto for Damon Severson.

16. Detroit Red Wings

Last season: 13th

Shoutout to the Lucas Raymond and Moritz Seider deals; they’re the only reason the Red Wings barely land in the league’s top half. A lot of the cap sheet aside from that duo still looks lackluster, however, and it’s why the Red Wings’ average positive value rate is on the wrong side of 50 percent.

The Red Wings have a lot of cap space, but it’s rare that they know how to use it. A lot of their free agency bets from the past have aged poorly and I don’t quite see why they traded for Keegan Kolesar, given his contract. The Ben Chiarot extension from earlier this season remains mind-boggling and was immediately one of the league’s worst deals. That his game only degraded further from that moment makes things even worse.

17. Minnesota Wild

Last season: 11th

The Wild did what they had to do with Kirill Kaprizov; a $1.5 million overpay is easy to stomach for a superstar of his caliber. The same can’t be said about Michael McCarron’s deal. That price is what the market dictates, but I don’t believe he’s the quality of 4C that warrants — especially not at that term. It’s a growing trend of Bill Guerin overspending on the bottom of the lineup. Spending nearly $14 million on Nico Sturm, Yakov Trenin, Marcus Foligno and McCarron doesn’t feel great.

Thankfully, the Wild still have great deals in place for core pieces such as Matt Boldy and Brock Faber. And obviously Quinn Hughes will be a bargain for one more year.

One real tough spot is in net, where a decision will have to be made next year. For now, the Wild are getting $10 million worth of goaltending for $8.8 million. The math won’t work if Jesper Wallstedt continues to seize the starter’s role for the foreseeable future, though.

18. Boston Bruins

Last season: 25th

The Bruins have several problem deals on the books, and with term, too. I’m not sure it was wise to add Will Borgen to that list.

Thankfully, they have David Pastrnak and Jeremy Swayman locked up for a long time. The two are among the best at their positions and making a lot less than they should. It would be great if the Bruins could build more efficiently around them. JJ Peterka was an interesting swing in that direction. Even after a down season, his market value is still roughly in line with his salary. If he can click well with Pastrnak, that could be the win Boston is looking for.

19. Los Angeles Kings

Last season: 18th

The last Ken Holland summer was a dud and he probably gave too much money last fall to Adrian Kempe, who is probably not a $10 million guy.

The Kings have been a bit better since adding Artemi Panarin on a good contract, getting Mats Zuccarello for a bonus-laden deal and capping it off with an excellent extension on Brandt Clarke. He’s making the same money as Nemec and Pavel Mintyukov while being a significantly better player. That’s a major win.

20. Philadelphia Flyers

Last season: 26th

One year makes a pretty big difference. The Flyers’ roster responded really well to Rick Tocchet hockey, with much of the roster’s value taking a positive step forward. Noah Cates was arguably the biggest beneficiary of that, and the Tyson Foerster extension helped add a fair bit of surplus value.

Still, the Flyers land a bit below average thanks to a string of deals that are close to fair for both sides from Trevor Zegras, Christian Dvorak, Jamie Drysdale and Dan Vladar. There’s nothing wrong with that, but in a rising cap world in which other teams are getting massive wins, fair deals aren’t quite enough.

21. Winnipeg Jets

Last season: 10th

No team fell more than Winnipeg’s 12 spots since last season. The main culprits for that: Extensions for Kyle Connor and Adam Lowry both looking much pricier than their caliber of player warrants.

Given Winnipeg’s unique issue of retaining players, locking both up was a win in and of itself. It’s just that neither contract looks like it’ll age well, with Lowry’s especially being a major overpay. That is what the market dictates for a shutdown 3C these days; I’m just not convinced of the 33-year-old’s staying power at that level.

In brighter news, Mark Scheifele had a nice return to form while Cole Perfetti signed a reasonable extension on top of that. It’s just not enough to keep up with the two-thirds of the league with a better financial outlook.

22. New York Rangers

Last season: 24th

The Rangers are wasting Adam Fox’s prime with a sea of fair-money deals. Sure, there aren’t a lot of anchors here anymore, but there also aren’t many outright wins either. Not with a whole lot of term anyway.

When everyone gets paid fairly, the result is mid. That’s where the Rangers expect to be this season. If every other team is getting a deal, the result might get ugly. That’s where the Rangers likely end up beyond this season.

23. St. Louis Blues

Last season: 19th

The offer-sheet bros were extended this year, and the Blues got massive wins on both deals. Robert Thomas’ deal continues to age well, too, while Colton Parayko’s deal is finally on the right side of the ledger.

There’s still a little too much that’s questionable, though. We’ll see what Mason McTavish can do as a Blue, but extensions to Pavel Buchnevich and Cam Fowler have started rough, and I’m iffy on Connor McMichael’s new deal. The Ross Johnston signing this summer was also puzzling.

24. Toronto Maple Leafs

Last season: 15th

God bless John Tavares’ hometown discount and the model’s incredible fascination with Darren Raddysh (explained more here before he was signed). If not for that, the Leafs might be even closer to the bottom. 

New GM John Chayka spent a lot of money this summer, and while the team got better and they had the right idea to keep terms short, the Leafs left a lot on the table efficiency-wise. Spending nearly $14 million on Jack Roslovic, Teddy Blueger, Colton Sissons and Brandon Duhaime just doesn’t feel sound. And while there’s plenty of hope that Sergei Bobrovsky is the next Ed Belfour, the odds aren’t in Toronto’s favor with the third year really dragging things down.

Compare where the Leafs are to where the league’s contenders are and there’s a lot of work left to be done. Some of that might be proven on the ice this season away from Craig Berube hockey, but in order to get back to contention, the Leafs are going to have to earn some much bigger wins in the boardroom.

25. Seattle Kraken

Last season: 32nd

Things are still ugly in Seattle, but not as ugly as they were this time last season. There are still four D-level deals on the books with Chandler Stephenson’s being the headliner, but there’s more good than bad overall. Adding Mackie Samoskevich was savvy and Matty Beniers’ deal is ageing nicely. The Kraken have a ton of cap space on top of that and didn’t waste it this summer, which is a plus. Still, there’s a long way to go here.

26. Nashville Predators

Last season: 30th

The Predators recuperated a decent chunk of value with a few bounce-back seasons from some of their recent big-name signings. Steven Stamkos, Brady Skjei, Nicolas Hague and Juuse Saros all saw their stock improve over the last year, and while none are value deals, they all look better than they did a year ago.

That’s not enough to get the Predators too high up the list, but it’s a step in the right direction. What would’ve been really nice: A long-term extension to Luke Evangelista last summer when Nashville had the chance. He’s underrated enough that the Predators should get a good deal on him anyway, but they could’ve saved more if they did it before his breakout last year.

27. Anaheim Ducks

Last season: 28th

The Ducks are suddenly in a bit of a bind after being somewhat blindsided by a Leo Carlsson offer sheet that now ranks as one of the league’s worst contracts. They still have Cutter Gauthier left to sign and there’s a good chance his deal is going to be a lot more expensive than expected. Pavel Mintyukov’s certainly was and now what is usually a major win for most up-and-coming teams — the second contract for star-level RFAs — is a major loss. 

That might be OK if the Ducks had a clean cap sheet, but they’ve had a prior tendency to overspend that is biting them on deals for Alex Killorn and Frank Vatrano. A rich new deal for A.J. Greer adds to that.

Anaheim’s exciting young talent might mean everything works out, but without cap efficiency on their side, the team’s ceiling could end up more limited.

28. New York Islanders

Last season: 29th

No team has more D-level deals than the Islanders. The worst part is that four of them came on Mathieu Darche’s first year on the job. Extending Alexander Romanov immediately backfired, giving up value for both Brayden Schenn and Ondrej Palat was odd given their contracts, and extending Jean-Gabriel Pageau instead of moving him was a misstep.

The good news is the Islanders have arguably the best ELC in hockey in Matthew Schaefer and one of the best goalie deals from Ilya Sorokin. But there are just way too many problem areas that are directly the result of the current man in charge.

29. Calgary Flames

Last season: 23rd

If not for Dustin Wolf’s steal of a contract (based mostly on the expectation he’ll age very well), Calgary would be in an even rougher spot. That speaks volumes for the 29th-ranked team. 

Jonathan Huberdeau’s onerous deal obviously causes a lot of damage here, but there’s also too much recent money invested into questionable defensemen. Up front, if the best value deal is Morgan Frost for one more season, your team is in trouble.

30. Chicago Blackhawks

Last season: 31st

It’s tough to judge the individual merits of a collective this poor, and it’s possible that many Blackhawks are individually better than the sum of their parts may indicate. That’s certainly true for Connor Bedard, who looked sensational before injury, and while his deal grades out poorly at the moment, I have little doubt he’ll find a way to become the $15 million player he was recently paid to be. As the team grows around him, deal efficiency should start growing, too. Key extensions to Frank Nazar and Spencer Knight look really promising.

Still, there’s a pattern here of overspending that is impossible to ignore. Bedard’s deal could end up fine, but $15 million is a lot of money for a budding superstar who has proven significantly less than past superstars who netted nearly 15 percent of the cap on their second deal. We don’t need to argue Bowen Byram’s controversial deal any further, and the Blackhawks added to that later with Patrick Kane somehow netting $8 million. It’s been a steady routine over the years under Kyle Davidson, and we’re now at a point that one of the league’s worst teams has only $8 million left in cap space despite having six players on ELCs. That’s less than the defending Stanley Cup champions. Ignore Chicago’s dead money on the books and the Blackhawks are still spending as much as Montreal next season; it’s not hard to look at both rosters and pick who you’d rather have.

All of that is a bit hard to fathom and leaves the Blackhawks with one of the lowest probabilities of positive contracts in the league. I hope it works out for them, but overpaying players by a few million every time tends to add up. The cap may be rising, but there’s still a cap that Chicago seems to ignore with every new deal.

31. Vancouver Canucks

Last season: 22nd

It doesn’t matter how much money the Canucks are paying Jamie Oleksiak and Luke Schenn in free agency; this is not going to be a good team regardless. That’s the beauty of the tank; the trick is not making a habit of it as Vancouver pivots back toward competing a la Chicago and San Jose. 

What does matter is if the Canucks can flip any present value for future value. Jake DeBrusk at fair money feels logical at present time, but for any Elias Pettersson deal, the team would probably be best served rebuilding his on-ice value. Just last year it was closer to $10.4 million; that’s a lot easier to move and get full trade value on.

32. San Jose Sharks

Last season: 27th

Once the Sharks extend their young phenoms, this picture will start looking rosier. Macklin Celebrini is a max-value player on any extension that’s five years or longer; there’s a good chance he’ll have one of the league’s best deals whenever he signs. I imagine future deals for Will Smith and Michael Misa will have the same effect.

But they’ll need to be, given how grim the current picture looks, especially after this offseason. I understand the team’s need to beef up the blue line, and I didn’t mind the idea of Darnell Nurse for that. Doing that after signing Jacob Trouba, to what is immediately one of the worst deals in the league, is a tough look. 

The wins should come once the youngsters get signed, but that’s also no longer a given with the way the market has gone this summer. For now, the Sharks have piled up some unfortunately big losses on their cap sheet; hopefully it doesn’t cost them.

— Data via CapWages