From odds and trends to picks, props and analysis from our experts, here’s everything you need to help make your decisions at the betting window.
The Buccaneers are the odds-on favorite to win the NFC South at -200, while the Texans now find themselves co-favorites with the Jacksonville Jaguars at +185 in the AFC South.
Houston is a 2.5-point favorite in the second game of Monday night’s doubleheader.
Buccaneers-Texans game bets Maldonado: This is on the premise that Houston doesn’t get its act together fast. The Texans were stuck in neutral in Week 1 — bottom three in success rate and a league-worst third-down rate (22%) — and played way too much 11 personnel behind a shaky offensive line. If adjustments aren’t made, C.J. Stroud could be in for another long night. Tampa’s defense just held Atlanta to 2.5 yards per carry and made Michael Penix Jr . settle for a quick-passing game script. With Vita Vea clogging lanes and Haason Reddick screaming off the edge, Nick Chubb isn’t likely to save Houston, especially with no role in the passing game. Baker Mayfield isn’t perfect, but he has Mike Evans and Emeka Egbuka to work with, and his defense can carry the weight. If the Texans don’t fix things quick, the Bucs could be the ones cashing in on Sunday night.
Notable player props, bets play 0:41
Nico Collins looking to get back on track in Week 2
DJ Bien-Aime breaks down how the Texans plan to get Nico Collins more involved in Week 2.
Maldonado: This makes too much sense. Chubb had 60 yards last week, but that was against light boxes all game, and he handled only about half the backfield touches. Now he faces a Tampa defense that just held Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier to a combined 48 yards on 22 carries. The Buccaneers were top five against the run last year and picked up right where they left off. With Vea and Reddick up front, they can bottle up Chubb, especially with Chubb a nonfactor in the passing game.
Loza: The Texans held Kyren Williams to 3.7 yards per carry in Week 1. As such, I’m not expecting a terribly efficient showing from Irving. However, his talent as a pass-catcher figures to be on full display. Houston pressured Matthew Stafford to the tune of six QB hits and three sacks last week. Given Tristan Wirfs ‘ absence, Mayfield is also likely to feel the heat and, subsequently, rely on a short-yardage outlet. I expect Irving to be peppered (he converted 4-of-4 targets in Week 1) enough to boost his overall output over the above line.
Bowen: With Christian Kirk expected to miss his second straight game (hamstring), let’s play for Higgins to see a bump in volume. Higgins caught two of three targets in his pro debut versus the Rams in Week 1, and he will have opportunities to work the intermediate windows against the Bucs’ zone coverages on Monday night.
Defensive props Walder: Last season, no player recorded more pass rush wins or a higher pass rush win rate than Hunter. Maybe I would think twice here if the Texans defensive end were facing Tristan Wirfs , but the Buccaneers’ star left tackle is out with a knee injury. And Houston is also a light favorite, so there are no expected game-script issues working against Hunter, either. All in all, my model is fully on board here, making Hunter +104 to go over 0.5 sacks on Monday night.
Betting trends Courtesy ESPN Research
Tampa Bay is 11-2 against the spread as a road underdog since 2023 and 14-4 ATS in road games overall in that span.
The Buccaneers moved from -110 to -200 to win the NFC South after beating the Falcons in Week 1.
Houston is 0-5 ATS in September since 2024 but is 4-0 ATS in games off more than six days rest since 2024.
Despite the Texans’ Week 1 loss, they are still favored to win the AFC South, dropping from -110 to +185.
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Schefter: Raiders look like a tough out in a tough division
Adam Schefter was impressed by Pete Carroll’s debut as Raiders coach.
Justin Herbert and the Chargers knocked off the defending AFC champion Kansas City Chiefs 27-21 in Brazil in Week 1, while the Raiders came away with a 20-13 road win against the New England Patriots behind a big performance from Geno Smith .
The Chargers are now +200 to win the AFC West, just behind the Chiefs at +160. Meanwhile, the Raiders saw their odds to make the playoffs shift from +340 to +130.
The Chargers won both matchups with the Raiders by double digits last season.
Chargers-Raiders game bets Maldonado: Mega-small sample size, but it looks like the Chargers are the more complete offense with sustained drives, while the Raiders are more explosive but less balanced. If the Chargers’ offensive line neutralizes Maxx Crosby and company, they cover.
Notable player props, bets Omarion Hampton converted 17 touches into 61 yards in his debut. Leandro Bernardes/PxImages/Icon Sportswire Moody: Herbert was excellent against the Chiefs in Week 1, spreading the ball to Ladd McConkey , Keenan Allen and Quentin Johnston . Despite playing in Greg Roman’s run-oriented offense, it looks like the Chargers might lean on Herbert and the passing game more than expected. Herbert has cleared this line in four of his last five games dating back to last season — including one against the Raiders — and Las Vegas just allowed 287 passing yards to Drake Maye in Week 1. Herbert is well-positioned for another strong outing.
Loza: The Raiders invested significant resources in their defense over the offseason, and those efforts appeared to pay off in Week 1, as they held New England to 3.3 YPC. But the Patriots’ backfield became an afterthought as the Raiders’ lead increased. Moreover, it’s worth noting that TreVeyon Henderson was able to rip off a long run. Hampton figures to be a bigger test and, given the spread, game flow should work in his favor.
Bowen: Hampton had two receptions in Week 1, and he has the ability to produce on swings, screens or checkdowns. Look for Hampton to post numbers as an outlet for Herbert on Monday night.
Maldonado: This feels automatic. McConkey was inches away from cashing this exact look in Week 1 and now draws a Raiders defense that just gave up 362 through the air and got burned for multiple chunk plays. With defenses having to respect Keenan Allen , Quentin Johnston and even Tyler Conklin , McConkey is going to see single coverage in spots where Herbert can let it rip.
Betting trends Courtesy ESPN Research
The Chargers are 11-2 ATS as a favorite since 2024 and 6-1 ATS as road favorites.
The Chargers are 7-0 ATS against division opponents since 2024.
The Raiders are 0-3 ATS in their last three games as a home underdog.
The Raiders’ opening win total was 5.5 (Even) at ESPN BET but moved to 7.5 (-120) after last week’s win.
